Chasing A Flush on the Internet
Posted in Poker on 08/15/2013 06:21 pm by Lilly
Chasing a flush on the net – Occasionally the numbers just do not add up!
There is an age old debate in poker – really should you chase a flush? Initially of all we need to define what we mean here by "chasing a flush on-line."
Chasing anything in Texas holdem poker will be the practice of wagering to stay in a hand in the hope that you will produce a far better hands, even even though you may possibly have absolutely nothing in the time. So chasing a flush means gambling which you will get the card or card that you just should complete your flush hands on the turn or river. You can not chase a flush before the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush isn’t on.
So let us say you happen to be wagering one of the big poker web sites on-line, you’ve been dealt the Ace and nine of spades and you have paid to see the flop.
The flop is 2s 7 spades King of diamonds and one of your competitors comes out betting strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?
1st of all ask yourself what sort of hand you happen to be up against. The possibilities are triples, one more flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you’re only winning towards the bluff with your Ace. On the other hands when you hit a spade in the last 2 cards you may have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or four of a kind.
On the face of it you may possibly assume that statistically you may have about a 50-50 likelihood of hitting your spade, after all there is 2 cards to come and 4 suits so there must be about a half chance, appropriate?
Wrong!
You already have two of the spades in your hands and there’s yet another 2 showing about the table, so you know five cards and 4 of them are spades. That indicates you’ve got nine spades left accessible out of the 47 cards you haven’t seen, which is only a forty two per-cent chance of catching your flush.
If you do bet around the turn and do not produce your flush, what do you do then? You may have possibly now turn out to be pot-committed, you’ve got put so much into the pot that you just may possibly as effectively bet again on the river unless there’s a major raise or all-in towards you, but now your chances of creating the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one per cent.
But what of that other factor, the mysterious net poker syndrome? What I mean by that is despite the fact that you statistically have a forty two percent probability of making a flush, is that what in fact occurs in reality? Should you wagered the exact same palm in the very same web poker table 100 occasions would you acquire a flush forty two occasions? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a whole lot less typically than forty two out of one hundred times!
That is just my own opinion and I’m positive the poker sites would tell you a different story, except the way I see it’s forty two per-cent will be the very Greatest you’re ever going to have and you may perhaps properly have a lot much less chance than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the internet is really a quite risky system that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you enough of a likelihood of pulling out the succeeding hand.